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Thousands protest in Iran

UK Exclusives, UK News Desk / Ghyslaine Cordrey

Reports this week describe how thousands protest in Iran, updates on the latest from the Iraq-led offensive against Mosul, the kidnapping of two oil workers in Iraq’s oil-hub of Basra and their subsequent rescue and incidents and attacks in Cairo, Algeria, Israel and Saudi Arabia. A foiled Islamic State plot to attack a soccer match in Saudi Arabia may point to an increased threat to civilians from the group. PGI’s Weekly Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Briefing provides an overview of key developments from across the region in the past seven days. To receive PGI’s daily briefing, containing a comprehensive update of developments in the region, register now for free Risk Portal access or follow us @PGIIntelligence Algeria Defence ministry says troops killed seven militants during October – 2 November Algeria’s defence ministry said that its forces had killed seven terrorists nationwide in operations during the month of October. Thirty-five individuals supporting terrorist groups were arrested and four others surrendered, according to official figures. Troops also recovered 21 Kalashnikov-style rifles, 31 homemade bombs, nine mines and a large amount of ammunition and other weapons. Security forces launch operation near Constantine after killing of policeman – 29 October Local media site TSA Algeria said that security forces carried out a major search operation to locate three gunmen who killed a police officer in Constantine on 28 October. The operation targeted areas northeast of Constantine between the el-Jebel Ouahche and Ziadia areas and local media said that some gunfire was reported. Security forces patrols were increased in other areas of the province. Officials did not immediately confirm the operation or the number of casualties. Militants kill policeman in Constantine – 28 October Three gunmen attacked a restaurant in the Ziadia neighbourhood in Constantine, killing a police officer. The Islamic State-linked Amaq Agency said that Islamic State fighters carried out the attack. The Islamic State militant group has a limited presence in Algeria and rarely carries out attacks. On 9 October, it claimed an IED attack on a convoy near Tamalus, Skikda province. Bahrain Opposition appeals dissolution order – 31 October The main Shi’a opposition group, al-Wefaq, appealed against a July court ruling that ordered the party to be dissolved over terrorism-related offences. In September, an appeals court upheld the earlier court ruling that ordered al-Wefaq be disbanded for inciting violence and encouraging unrest. The ruling-Sunni monarchy’s crackdown on the largely Shi’a opposition has been criticised by the UN and Bahrain’s Western allies. Egypt Troops prevent attack on Sinai checkpoint – 1 November An Army spokesman announced that members of the security forces had prevented an attack on a military checkpoint in the North Sinai by Islamist militants. Soldiers discovered a large car bomb and a suicide vest during a security sweep, both of which were destroyed. The exact location of the planned attack was not named, however troops said separately that they had also destroyed seven roadside IEDs along routes used by security forces in el-Arish, Rafah and Sheikh Zuweid. Authorities arrest five over Ain Shams attack –30 October The interior ministry said that security forces arrested five Islamist militants in connection with an attack on a police convoy on Gesr al-Suez Street in Cairo’s Ain Shams district, seizing several IEDs. Officials said that those arrested were planning attacks on security forces. The location of the arrests was not immediately confirmed. Security forces said that the attack on 28 October missed its target, killing one civilian and wounding one other. Militants claim to destroy military vehicle, damage another in North Sinai – 30 October According to a statement from the Islamic State (IS)-linked Amaq Agency, militants destroyed a military vehicle in the Nakhal area of the North Sinai governorate and damaged another in the Sheikh Zuweid area. The claim was not immediately confirmed by security forces but comes after an IED against a security forces’ patrol in Sheikh Zuweid on 29 October killed two soldiers. The group frequently targets military patrols in Rafah, al-Arish and Sheikh Zuweid but attacks south of these areas are less common. Iran Thousands protest in Iran near Shiraz – 13 October Tens of thousands of people gathered in Passargadae, Fars province, to commemorate of Persian King Cyrus the Great outside a tomb. However the gathering escalated into an anti-government protest that saw crowds chant nationalistic slogans and demand greater freedom of expression. Concerned about unrest, security services had already sealed off roads to Pasargade, cut of telecommunications services and deployed large numbers of personnel ahead of the gathering. Iraq Baghdadi rallies fighters amid Mosul offensive – 3 November In a rare audio message, Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi said he was confident that his forces would emerge victorious in the ongoing battle for control of Mosul. Baghdadi called on the estimated 3,000-5,000 fighters under his command in Mosul to fight to the death and warned that invading forces would incur heavy losses. The IS leader, whose whereabouts are unknown, also called for attacks outside of Iraq, including in Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The authenticity of the message has not yet been verified independently. Security forces free oil workers in Basra – 1 November Two Iraqi oil engineers were freed by security forces hours after they were kidnapped on 31 October near the southern oil hub of Basra. The two Lukoil employees were abducted near an oil field west of Qurna but were freed after security forces sealed off a nearby neighbourhood. Another Iraqi victim found at the same location as the engineers was also freed, but officials said that those responsible for the kidnappings were unknown and remained at large. Security in southern Iraq deteriorated over 2015, though local media reported major security operations during 2016 have led to a marginal improvement in the situation. PM warns Turkey over troop deployment – 1 November Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi warned Turkey over its deployment of military forces along the Iraq-Turkey border, which the PM warned

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PGI’s Risk Portal Weekly MENA Briefing – 30 September 2016

UK News Desk / Ghyslaine Cordrey

PGI’s Risk Portal Weekly MENA Briefing – 30 September 2016 PGI Risk Portal Weekly MENA Briefing Posted on 30 September by PGI Risk Portal PGI’s Weekly Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Briefing provides an overview of key developments from across the region in the past seven days. To receive PGI’s daily briefing, containing a comprehensive update of developments in the region, register now for free Risk Portal access or follow us @PGIIntelligence Algeria Troops kill five militants in Batna – 29 September Soldiers killed five Islamist militants in Tazoult, Batna province, around 430 km southeast of Algiers. Weapons, explosives, ammunition and food were seized in the sweep, which authorities said was ongoing. Algerian security forces have killed tens of militants, including 50 between January and June, in counter-terrorism operations so far in 2016. Troops kill two militants in Medea – 26 September Two militants were killed by security forces in an operation over the night of 25-26 September. Soldiers recovered weapons, ammunition and other equipment from the militants after they were killed. Algerian forces regularly report the death or capture of alleged militants in the north of the country. Government planning bank privatisation amid cash shortage – 25 September According to Reuters, a senior financial official said that Algeria would permit six major state-owned banks to list on the local stock exchange to help them obtain financing. The move would reverse a rule requiring Algerian firms to keep majority shareholding in any partnership with foreigners. Algeria, which derives 60 percent of its national budget from oil and gas sales, has suffered from a shortage of cash since a global decline in oil prices in 2014. Egypt Official survives car bomb attack in Cairo – 29 September The assistant prosecutor general of Egypt, Zakaria Abdel Aziz, survived a car bomb attack on his convoy in Cairo. One passer-by was wounded in the blast, which occurred when a parked car bomb detonated in al-Banafseg district in New Cairo’s First Settlement. No group claimed responsibility for the attack but Islamist militants have staged targeted attacks on Egyptian officials since the 2011 uprising, including a June 2015 car bomb attack that killed the state prosecutor. Assailants open fire at bank in Cairo – 28 September The Youm 7 media agency reported that unidentified assailants fired at a policeman and security guard at a bank in the Bulaq Abu al-Ela neighbourhood of Cairo, before fleeing. The attack left two guards injured. Initial reports did not confirm the circumstances of the incident. Authorities said that they were investigating the identities of the gunmen. Various anti-government militant groups occasionally target policemen around the capital. Security forces arrest Islamists over sabotage plans – 24 September Egypt’s interior ministry announced that 17 members of the Muslim Brotherhood had been arrested in Qalioubiya governorate while allegedly planning ways to sabotage the country’s economy. The suspects, who were found in possession of cash, a birdshot gun and ammunition, reportedly confessed to planning to worsen a shortage of dollars, and other crimes. The banned Muslim Brotherhood has maintained that it rejects violence despite government claims otherwise. Iran Local media announce arrest of Kurdish militants in Marivan – 28 September Tasnim news agency announced the arrest of four members of a Kurdish militant cell over 16-17 September in Marivan, Kuridstan province. Three Kalashnikov-style rifles, 16 magazines and other equipment were seized during the arrests, which were not previously disclosed. Iran has blamed Saudi Arabia for an increase in Kurdish separatist violence along its western border since mid-2016. Economy minister backs FATF compliance – 27 September Ali Tayyebnia, Iran’s economy minister, told parliament that the country should comply with Financial Action Task Force (FATF) regulations in order to ease barriers to the banking sector. The minister said that Iran would implement some parts of the action plan recommended by the FATF so that it could be removed from the inter-governmental body’s blacklist. Tayyebnia also said the Iran would not share intelligence, recognise unjust sanctions and would only accept as terrorist groups those entities designated by the UN Security Council. The FATF was set up to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing. Supreme leader blocks Ahmadinejad presidential run – 26 September Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, told former hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad not to run again in next year’s presidential election. According to state news agency IRNA, Khamenei said Ahmadinejad’s candidacy would deepen the country’s political divisions. Ahmadinejad’s disputed 2009 re-election led to the largest outbreak of unrest in decades. Iraq Islamic State loses control of last operating oil well near Kirkuk – 28 September The Islamic State (IS) group was ousted from its last operating oil well in Iraq by pro-government forces near Kirkuk. The oil ministry confirmed that IS militants were forced from the Qayyarah oil field in fighting several weeks ago, but that pro-government forces had yet to capture the Najma oil field, near Qayyarah, though its wells were no longer producing. The loss of IS’ last well near Shirqat marks a major blow to the group’s potential revenue streams. UK confirms Islamic State missile attacks – 24 September Senior Royal Air Force commander Lieutenant General Mark Carleton-Smith told reporters that Islamic State (IS) militants had fired surface-to-air missiles at US-led coalition warplanes over Iraq. Smith said no UK warplanes had been struck by IS missiles due to tactics and defensive measures employed by pilots. No details of specific incidents or weapons systems used were provided, though IS has benefitted from the capture of sophisticated weapons from its opponents, including the Iraqi and Syrian armed forces. Car bomb kills 12 in Tikrit – 24 September Militants killed 12 people when they attacked a police checkpoint north of Tikrit and then detonated a car bomb at the entrance of the city. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, which was the first since the city was retaken from Islamic State in April 2015. One of the militants was reportedly shot dead at the checkpoint, where four officers were

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A deal or a new arms race?

UK News Desk / Ghyslaine Cordrey

A deal or a new arms race? Following the historic deal between the P5+1 and Iran over its nuclear program, how will the GCC countries react? SecurityNewsDesk talks to 5 Dimension consultants, experts in regional geo politics, who have talked to advisors working with the GCC and some of the regional governments to get their views. “The P5+1 deal with Iran is certainly historic but GCC countries are likely to react differently and in accordance with their national interests and regional sectarian conflicts remain a thorny issue,” said Aimen Dean. Dean continued, “Oman, who campaigned behind the scenes and acted as a discreet mediator between Iran and the United States since 2012, is likely to welcome the new deal, as it would revive not only a potentially highly lucrative Iran-India gas pipeline project, but possibly even a similar project concerning oil exports from Iran to India via Oman.” He added, “I also believe Kuwait would also welcome the outcome considering the nervousness of its leaders over the fragile sectarian coexistence in Kuwait and Iran’s influence over Kuwait’s Shia population.” However, Saudi Arabia will be concerned by the implications of this deal for regional security. Among Riyadh’s concerns are the fact that Iran will have access to billions of US dollars that have been frozen and the fact that oil prices are likely to be affected should Iran gradually start to release more oil into the market. Dean suggests, “Saudi Arabia’s concern is that with access to frozen funds and oil revenues, the Iranian regime would accelerate military aid to the Assad regime in Syria, thereby prolonging a conflict which gave rise to radical Sunni groups such as the ISIS and Al-Nusra.” He believes the Saudis are also concerned that the Iranian regime would use such funds to channel more military and material aid to the Houthis in Yemen, who the Saudi forces have been fighting since March. The Saudis seem to be paying close attention to particular clauses within the agreement, especially regarding the embargoes on weapons for 5 years and on missile parts and engines for 8 years. The Saudis and their allies in the GCC (Bahrain, Qatar and UAE) are determined to keep the crucial air force balance of power in their favour. Currently, the GCC countries possess 595 modern fighter jets (including those currently on order) as opposed to 40 modern Iranian fighter jets. The clauses concerning weapons and missile parts embargo seem to have been included partly due to the GCC leaders demands put to President Obama earlier this year at the Camp David summit. Both clauses were included to guarantee air power superiority of the GCC over Iran with the additional offer of a US missiles shield installed in GCC countries as further reassurance against any potential Iranian ballistic missile aggression. A senior Saudi Foreign Ministry source told the 5 Dimensions team, “that while they are happy to see both clauses included in the deal, we are skeptical as to how they will be policed, monitored and enforced.” Dean concluded by saying, “In our analysis there is an atmosphere within Saudi Arabia of kick-starting another arms race as a result of which the Saudis would spend tens of billion of US dollars upgrading their inadequate navy and purchasing further fourth generation fighter jets, including Typhoon Eurofighter jets (which it already possesses) and possibly French Rafales. The deal might seem to have the illusion of ushering in a new era in the Middle East, but it could just as easily have kick started an arms race in which Saudi Arabia would attempt to outspend Iran militarily in order to guarantee military technology superiority over Iran as a strategic deterrence.” 5 Dimension Consultants have a department concentrating on regional geopolitics and have direct access into institutions across the Middle East region.

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A dangerous Iranian escalation in Yemen?

UK News Desk / Ghyslaine Cordrey

A dangerous Iranian escalation in Yemen? The Iranian leadership is sending two Iranian naval vessels into the military operations zone around Yemen’s waters in a step that could be seen by Saudi Arabia and her allies as provocative and escalatory. A source within the Saudi MoD told 5 Dimension Consultants in Dubai “that while there is a belief within the MoD that the Iranian navy would not dare provoke a confrontation around Yemen’s waters, the “laws of unintended consequences” however could lead to an accidental confrontation.” The security forces in Saudi already suspect a pro-Iranian element role in targeting Saudi police officers with frequent shootings, one of which was fatal (April 8). The MoD source added to 5 Dimensions “that they also believe that the Iranian vessels might be a ploy by the Iranians to distract the Saudi led collation from an Iranian clandestine operation to supply al-Houthis with weapons from Eritrea by sea.” In analysing this 5 Dimensions asked their source what the Saudi MoD view was of the Iranian leaderships understanding of their actions and their intentions? The reply was “the Iranian leadership continues to underestimate the resolve of the new Saudi leadership and still believes that the policies of the past decade apply, an attitude that it both misguided as well as dangerous.” The 5 Dimensions team analyzing this believe “the Saudis appear to be determined to achieve their goals in Yemen despite the cost and without much regard for the consequences, as far as Iran is concerned. The fear is that the “law of unintended consequences” might ignite an accidental confrontation in the waters of Yemen that cannot be easily contained.” They identified that the American and French navies are sending vessels to the area, with the probable intent of de-escalating any situation and added “However, the possibility of a clandestine military supply missions by the Iranians covered by a naval deployment could result in accidents that increase the likelihood of an escalatory event. Something that neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia desires.” 5 Dimension Consultants are experts in regional political and security matters and advise Security Media Publishing amongst others.

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